Remsoft woodstock & climate change
Optimisation is a very powerful tool for scenario modelling.
Introduce constraints that reflect a new reality and the algorithm will seek to minimise its effect, holding everything else equal.
You thus get a fair view of the potential impact of the change being examined.
This was the approach when, while at Coillte, Myles McDonagh of Silvalytics gave some students of the Msc in Business Analytics the challenge of assessing the impact of different climate change scenarios on Irish forestry.
Theyrecently presented their work at an international conference and their paper is reproduced here.